Economics Research & Working Papers

1. Cargill & *Pingle (2019). Federal Reserve policy and housing: a goal too far, Economic Analysis and Policy, 62, 150-158.[B]
2. Dai, Liu, & *Song (2019). Gains or pains? Effects of US-China trade on US employment: based on a WIOT analysis from 2000 to 2014, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, forthcoming.[B]
3. Dwenger, *Fossen, & Simmler (2019). Firms' financial and real responses to credit supply shocks: evidence from firm-bank relationships in Germany, Journal of Financial Intermediation, forthcoming.[A*]
4. Fairlie & *Fossen (2019). Defining opportunity versus necessity entrepreneurship: two components of business creation, Research in Labor Economics, forthcoming.
5. Flanigan (2019). Artists and markets, in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Public Policy in Search of Synergies, 33-46, edited by *Parker, Pietrasieński, *Tosun, Wachowiak, & Wojtysiak-Kotlarski (Warsaw School of Economics Press, Poland).
6. *Fossen & Sorgner (2019). Mapping the future of occupations: transformative and destructive effects of new digital technologies on jobs, Foresight and STI Governance, 13 (2), 10-18.
7. *Fossen & Sorgner (2019). Digitalization of work and entry into entrepreneurship, Journal of Business Research, forthcoming.[A]
8. Gao, *Song, Sun, & Zang (2019). Does high-speed rail really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River delta region, Review of Development Economics, forthcoming.[B]
9. Gibbons, Greenman, Norlander & *Sørensen (2019). Monopsony power and guest worker programs, Antitrust Bulletin, 64 (4), 540-565.[B]
10. Hardegree, Sheley, Brunson, *Taylor, & Moffet (2019). Iterative-adaptive management and contingency-based restoration planning in variable environment, Rangeland Ecology & Management, 72 (2), 217-224.
11. *Harris & Grumstrup (2019). Use of social accounting matrix model for non-traditional export-base analysis for Humboldt County, in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Public Policy in Search of Synergies, 47-60, edited by Parker, Pietrasieński, Tosun, Wachowiak, & Wojtysiak-Kotlarski (Warsaw School of Economics Press, Poland).
12. Havranek & *Sokolova (2019). Do consumers really follow a rule of thumb? Three thousand estimates from 144 studies say ‘probably not’, Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming.[A*]
13. Hernández Castañeda & *Sørensen (2019). Changing sex-ratios among immigrant communities in the USA, Journal of Economics, Race and Policy, 2 (1), 20-42.
14. *Lacy, Sørensen, & Gibbons (2019). Government cheese: a case study of price supports, Applied Economics Teaching Resources, forthcoming.
15. *Mukhopadhyay (2019). Legal status and immigrants' educational investment decisions, Review of Economics of the Household, 17 (1), 1-29.[A]
16. *Mukhopadhyay, Wendel, & Edberg (2019). Incentive design to boost health for adolescents with Medicaid coverage: evidence from a field experiment, Economics and Human Biology, 33, 101-115.[A]
17. *Mukhopadhyay, Wendel, & Zou (2019). Impacts of shifting responsibility for high-cost individuals on health insurance exchange plan premiums and cost-sharing provisions, Journal of Health Economics, 66, 180-194.[A*]
18. Nanda & *Tosun (2019). Localization of industry in Nevada: a location quotient analysis, in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Public Policy in Search of Synergies, 109-116, edited by Parker, Pietrasieński, Tosun, Wachowiak, & Wojtysiak-Kotlarski (Warsaw School of Economics Press, Poland).
19. *Parker (2019). Tariffs and trade deficits in the United States, in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Public Policy in Search of Synergies, 117-132, edited by Parker, Pietrasieński, Tosun, Wachowiak, & Wojtysiak-Kotlarski (Warsaw School of Economics Press, Poland).
20. *Parker & Ridinger (2019). Understanding the payday lending market, in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Public Policy in Search of Synergies, 133-146, edited by Parker, Pietrasieński, Tosun, Wachowiak, & Wojtysiak-Kotlarski (Warsaw School of Economics Press, Poland).
21. Poghosyan & *Tosun (2019). Assessing activist fiscal policy in advanced and emerging market economies using real-time data, Oxford Economic Papers, 71 (1), 225–249.[A]
22. *Pram (2019). Weak implementation, Economic Theory, forthcoming.[A*]
23. *Pram (2019). On the equivalence of robustness to general and canonical elaborations, Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming.[A*]
24. *Song, Sun, Wang, & Zou (2019). Commuting subsidy and burden: evidence from Tianjin, China, Case Studies on Transport Policy, 7 (3), 574-582.[C]
25. *Taylor, Christman, & Rollins (2019). Targeting policy to promote defensible space in the wildland-urban interface: evidence from homeowners in Nevada, Land Economics, 95 (4), 531-556.[A]
26. Zhu, Lou, & *Song (2019). Openness, technology spillovers, and resource misallocation: evidence from China, The Chinese Economy, forthcoming.[B]

1. Cargill (2018). The Financial System, Financial Regulation, and Central Bank Policy, (Cambridge University Press).
2. Dobra, Dobra, & Ouedraogo (2018). Does mineral development provide a basis for sustainable economic development?, Resources Policy, 58, 71-76.[B]
3. Eiswerth, Lawley, & *Taylor (2018). Economics of invasive species, in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science, edited by Shugart (Oxford University Press).
4. *Fossen & Martin (2018). Entrepreneurial dynamics over space and time, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 70, 204-214.[A]
5. *Fossen & Steiner (2018). The tax-rate elasticity of local business profits, German Economic Review, 19 (2), 162-189.[B]
6. Garrett & *Nichols (2018). The behavior of casino gambling revenue considering alternative measures of 'income', Contemporary Economic Policy, 37 (2), 274-296.[B]
7. Lee, Loveridge, & Winkler (2018). The influence of an extreme warm spell on public support for government involvement in climate change adaptation, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 108 (3), 718-738.
8. Neumeier, *Sørensen, & Webber (2018). The implicit costs of motherhood over the lifecycle: cross-cohort evidence from administrative longitudinal data, Southern Economic Journal, 84 (3), 716-733.[A]
9. Norlander & *Sørensen (2018). 21st century slowdown: the historic nature of recent declines in the growth of the immigrant population in the United States, Migration Letters, 15 (3), 409-422.
10. Ouedraogo, *Tosun, & *Yang (2018). Fertility and population policy, Public Sector Economics, 42 (1), 21-43.
11. Papadovasilaki, *Guerrero, & Sundali (2018). The effect of early and salient investment experiences on subsequent asset allocation decisions, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 19, 1-19.[A]
12. *Parker (2018). The Comparative Economics of Global Growth and Inequality, (Great River Learning, Dubuque, IA).
13. *Pingle (2018). Values: how do they contribute to economic success, Journal of Organizational Psychology, 18 (1), 130-136.
14. *Pingle & Mahmoudi (2018). Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and choice, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 75, 141-153.[A]
15. Safford, Sundali, & *Guerrero (2018). Does experiencing a crash make all the difference: an experiment on the depression babies hypothesis, SAGE Open - Economics, 8 (2), 1-16.
16. *Taylor, Rollins, & Lott (2018). Exploring the behavioral and welfare implications of social-comparison messages in residential water and electricity, Economics Letters, 168, 65-69.[A]
17. *Uz (2018). Energy efficiency investments in small and medium sized manufacturing firms: the case of California energy crisis, Energy Economics, 70 (C), 421-428.[A*]
18. Yakovlev, *Tosun, & Lewis (2018). The fiscal consequences of legislative term limits, Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 48 (3), 1-19.
19. *Yang & Vogelsang (2018). Finite sample performance of a long run variance estimator based on exactly (almost) unbiased autocovariance estimators, Economics Letters, 165, 21-27.[A]

1. Depew, Norlander, & *Sørensen (2017). Inter-firm mobility and return migration patterns of skilled guest workers, Journal of Population Economics, 30 (2), 681-721.[A]
2. Fang, Li, & *Song (2017). China’s urban development policies and city growth: an analysis based on the Gibrat Law, International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 322-329.[A]
3. Fang, Li, & *Song (2017). China’s development policies and city size distribution: an analysis based on Zipf’s law, Urban Studies, 54 (12), 2818–2834.[A*]
4. *Fossen & Glocker (2017). Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice, European Economic Review, 97, 1-25.[A*]
5. *Fossen & König (2017). Public health insurance, individual health, and entry into self-employment, Small Business Economics, 49 (3),647-669.[A]
6. *Fossen, Mergele, & Pardo (2017). Fueling fiscal interactions: commodity price shocks and local government spending in Colombia, International Tax and Public Finance, 24 (4), 616-651.[B]
7. *Harris (2017). Incorporating risk in analysis of tax policies for solar power investments, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7 (6), 112-118.[C]
8. *Harris, *Mukhopadhyay, & Wiseman (2017). An application of difference-in-difference-in-difference model: effects of prevailing wage legislation in mountain states of the U.S., Public Works Management and Policy, 22 (2), 165-178.
9. Havranek, Rusnak, & *Sokolova (2017). Habit formation in consumption: a meta-analysis, European Economic Review, 95, 142-167.[A*]
10. Kim, Sun, & *Yang (2017). A fixed-bandwidth view of the pre-asymptotic inference for kernel smoothing with time series data, Journal of Econometrics, 197 (2), 298-322.[A*]
11. Lee, Loveridge, & Joshi (2017). Local acceptance and heterogeneous externalities of biorefineries, Energy Economics, 67, 328-336.[A*]
12. Lee, Miller, & Loveridge (2017). Modelling local food policy and the greenhouse gas emission due to transportation, The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 47 (1), 75-87.
13. Melkonyan, Banks, & Wendel (2017). Industrial policy to develop a multi-firm industry, Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 17 (3), 283-303.[C]
14. *Mukhopadhyay & Grossbard (2017). Marriage markets as explanation for why heavier people work more hours, IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 6 (9), 1-30.[A]
15. Nejadmalayeri, Faircloth, Wendel, & Chelikani (2017). GASB mandatory disclosure rules and municipal bond yield spreads, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 49 (2), 379-405.[B]
16. *Nichols & *Tosun (2017). The impact of legalized casino gambling on crime, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 66, 434-80.[A]
17. *Parker (2017). Small states in a time of big crises: Nevada, Ireland, and the Basque Autonomous Community during the Great Recession, in A Comparative View of the Resilience of Public Finances and Self-Government in the Basque Country, Catalonia, and Nevada, edited by Irujo and Agirreazkuenaga (Center for Basque Studies' Conference Series, Reno).
18. *Parker (2017). Nevada and the Great Recession: A Small State in a Big Crisis, (University of Nevada Press).
19. *Sørensen (2017). Do firms' wage-setting powers increase during recessions?, IZA World of Labor, 355.
20. *Uz, Wendel, & *Harris (2017). Net metering in Nevada: a case study, in Distributed Generation: International Experiences and Comparative Analyses, ch. 6, 103-120, edited by Castro & Dantas (Publit Soluções Editoriais, Rio de Janeiro).
21. Wendel, Serratt, & O'Donohue (2017). Understanding Healthcare Economics: Managing Your Career in an Evolving Healthcare System, (Productivity Press), 2nd Edition.
22. Wuthisatian, *Guerrero, & Sundali (2017). Gain attraction in the presence of social interactions, Review of Behavioral Finance, 9 (2), 105-127.[B]
23. Wuthisatian, *Pingle, & *Nichols (2017). To support trust and trustworthiness: punish, communicate, both neither?, Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, 1 (1), 61-68.
24. *Yang (2017). Consistency of trend break point estimator with underspecified break number, Econometrics, 5 (1), 1-19.[B]

1. Davis, Geisler, & *Nichols (2016). The price elasticity of marijuana demand, Empirical Economics, 50 (4), 1171-1192.[A]
2. Deng, *Song, & Chen (2016). Private participation in infrastructure project and its impact on the project cost, China Economic Review, 39, 63-76.[A]
3. *Fossen & Simmler (2016). Personal taxation of capital income and the financial leverage of firms, International Tax and Public Finance, 23 (1), 48-81.[B]
4. Geisler & *Nichols (2016). Riverboat casino gambling impacts on employment and income in host and surrounding communities, The Annals of Regional Science, 56 (1), 101-123.[B]
5. *Lacy & Huffman (2016). Consumer demand for potato products and willingness-to-pay for low-acrylamide, sulfite-free fresh potatoes and dices: evidence from lab auctions, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41 (1), 21.[A]
6. Li & *Song (2016). What pushed up China’s urban housing price so high?, The Chinese Economy, 49 (2), 128-141.[B]
7. Mahmoudi & *Guerrero (2016). The transmission of the U.S. stock market crash of 2008 to the European stock markets: an applied time series investigation, American Journal of Economics, 6 (4), 216-225.
8. Miranowski & *Lacy (2016). When do resistance management practices pay for the farmer and society? The case of western corn rootworm, The Journal of Agrobiotechnology Management & Economics, 19 (2), 7.
9. Ouedraogo, *Tosun, & Yilmaz (2016). Cyclicality of public investment in Africa, International Journal of Public Policy, 12 (3-6), 378-405.
10. Pippin & *Tosun (2016). Tax harmonization in the European Union and the euro-zone: a multilateral analysis of tax systems, Public Sector Economics/Financial Theory and Practice, 40 (4), 437-461.
11. Tosh, *Mukhopadhyay, Sengupta, Kamhoua, & Kwiat (2016). Game theoretic modeling to enforce security information sharing among firms, Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Cyber Security and Cloud Computing, 7-12 (IEEE Computer Society Washington, DC).
12. *Tosun & Yilmaz (2016). Public investment and fiscal sustainability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): lessons for European and Middle Eastern and North African countries, Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region, ch. 5, 100-115 (IGI Global, Hershey, PA).
13. *Tosun, *Uz, & Yılmaz (2016). Fiscal decentralization and local borrowing in Turkish provinces, Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region, ch. 22, 505-519 (IGI Global, Hershey, PA).
14. Vogelsang & *Yang (2016). Exactly/nearly unbiased estimation of autocovariances of a univariate time series with unknown mean, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 37 (6), 723–740.[A]
15. Wu, Wang, Yang, *Song, Wei, & Guo (2016). impact of political dispute on international trade based on an international trade inoperability input-output model: a case study of the 2012 Diaoyu Islands dispute, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25 (1), 47-70.

1. Borck, *Fossen, Freier, & Martin (2015). Race to the debt trap? Spatial econometric evidence on debt in German municipalities, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 53, 20-37.[A]
2. Caliendo, *Fossen, Kritikos, & Wetter (2015). The gender gap in entrepreneurship: not just a matter of personality, CESifo Economic Studies, 61 (1), 202-238.[C]
3. Christman & Rollins (2015). The Expected value of wildfire-potential information: a location-allocation problem for fire suppression resources, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 24 (7), 974-982.
4. Eiswerth, Epanchin-Niell, Rollins, & *Taylor (2015). Economic modeling and the management of exotic annual bromus species: accounting for ecosystem dynamics, ecological thresholds, and spatial interdependencies, in Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid Ecosystems of the Western US: Causes, Consequences, and Management Implications, ch. 15, 429-456, edited by Germino, Chambers, & Brown (Springer Press, New York, NY).
5. Evans & Rollins (2015). The social psychology of outdoor recreation lifestyles: dimensions, determinants and implications, Environmental Economics, 6 (2), 123-136.
6. *Fossen & Koenig (2015). Personal bankruptcy law and entrepreneurship, CESifo DICE Report, 13 (4), 28-34.
7. Gatzke, Cowee, & *Harris (2015). Feasibility study for mixes of different sales options for rural local food collaborators, Journal of Food Distribution Research, 46 (1), 18-22.[C]
8. Guo, Liu, Wu, Gu, *Song, & Tang (2015). Natural disasters, economic growth and sustainable development in China: an empirical study using provincial panel data, Sustainability, 7 (2), 16783-16800.
9. *Harris, Kim, Dick, Oliver, & Richardson (2015). Inclusion of risk in public works projects: an example with waste recycling options, Public Works Management and Policy, 20 (2), 176-195.
10. Lozano & *Sørensen (2015). Mexican immigrants, labour market assimilation and the current population: the sensitivity of results across seemingly equivalent surveys, International Migration, 53 (2), 250-262.[A]
11. *Nichols, *Tosun, & *Yang (2015). The fiscal impact of legalized casino gambling, Public Finance Review, 43 (6), 739-761.[B]
12. Papadovasilaki, *Guerrero, Sundali, & Gregory Stone (2015). How important are early investment experiences on subsequent investment decisions? A laboratory experiment on asset allocation, Managerial Finance, 41 (6), 582-590.  [B]
13. Papadovasilaki, *Parker, & *Pingle (2015). Improving student financial knowledge: a pilot study, Perspectives on Economic Education Research, 9 (2), 93-107.
14. *Pingle (2015). Boundedly rational decision-making under certainty and uncertainty: some reflections on Herbert Simon, in Minds, Models and Milieux: Commemorating the Centennial of the Birth of Herbert Simon, ch. 6, 91-109, edited by Frantz & Marsh (Palgrave McMillan).
15. *Sokolova (2015). Fiscal limits and monetary policy: default vs. inflation, Economic Modelling, 48, 189-198.[A]
16. *Song (2015). Should China implement congestion pricing?, The Chinese Economy, 48 (1), 57-67.[B]
17. *Song, Morris, & Tian (2015). An equity analysis of fuel tax and VMT fee based on the revenue-neutral principle, International Journal of Engineering Management and Economics, 5 (3/4), 245-257.
18. *Taylor, Sanchez-Meador, Rollins, Kim, & Will (2015). The economics of ecological restoration and hazardous fuel reduction treatments in the ponderosa pine forest ecosystem of the southern Colorado plateau, Forest Science, 61 (6), 988-1008.
19. *Tosun (2015). Retiree migration and intergenerational conflict, IZA World of Labor, 118.
20. *Tosun, Yakovlev, & Davies (2015). Principles of Microeconomics, (Cognella, San Diego, CA).
21. Xu, Wang, & *Song (2015). Opinion leadership and Chinese consumers’ attitudes toward pork with a quality and safety label, The Chinese Economy, 48 (1), 41-56.[B]
22. Zheng, *Song, & Yu (2015). In search of fiscal interactions: a spatial analysis of Chinese provincial infrastructure spending, Review of Development Economics, 19 (4), 860-876.[B]

1. Caliendo, *Fossen, & Kritikos (2014). Personality characteristics and the decisions to become and stay self-employed, Small Business Economics, 42 (4), 787-814.[A]
2. Cargill (2014). The role of the state in finance and money: implications for economic stability, Journal of Private Enterprise, 29 (3), 29-42.
3. *Carpenter (2014). Behavior in the time of cholera: evidence from the 2008-2009 cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe, in Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, 237-244, edited by Kennedy, Agarwal, & Yang (Springer Cham, New York, NY).
4. Dobra & Dobra (2014). Another look at non-renewable resource exhaustion, Mineral Economics, 27 (1), 33-41.[C]
5. Dupuy & *Sørensen (2014). On input market frictions and estimation of factors' demand, Southern Economic Journal, 80 (3), 772-781.[A]
6. *Fossen (2014). Personal bankruptcy law, wealth, and entrepreneurship: evidence from the introduction of a ‘fresh start’ policy, American Law and Economics Review, 16 (1), 269-312.[B]
7. *Harris, Deller, & Goetz (2014). Linkages of the agricultural sector models and precautions, in Encyclopedia of Agriculture and Food Systems, 148-155, edited by Van Alfen (Elsevier Press).
8. Hendrickson, *Nichols, & Fairchild (2014). Bank branch location and stability during distress, Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 6 (2), 133-151.[B]
9. Kobayashi, Rollins, & *Taylor (2014). Optimal livestock management on sagebrush rangeland with ecological thresholds, wildfire, and invasive plants, Land Economics, 90 (4), 623-648.[A]
10. Luitel & *Tosun (2014). A reexamination of state fiscal health and amnesty enactment, International Tax and Public Finance, 21 (5), 874-893.[B]
11. McIver, Brunson, Rollins, et al. (2014). A synopsis of short-term response to alternative restoration treatments in sagebrush-steppe: the SageSTEP project, Journal of Rangeland Ecology and Management, 67 (5), 584-598.
12. *Pingle (2014). Ethics in simple games, in Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making: Rational Decision-Making within the Bounds of Reason, ch. 32, 557-572, edited by Altman (Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, United Kingdom).
13. Pippin & *Tosun (2014). Electronic tax filing in the United States: an analysis of possible success factors, Electronic Journal of e-Government, 12 (1), 22-38.
14. Richardson, Herbst, *Harris, & Helmar (2014). Economic analysis of management options following a range fire in Elko County, Nevada, Western Economics Forum, 12 (2), 1-7.[C]
15. *Sokolova (2014). Are inflation expectations in Russia forward-looking?, International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 4 (1/2), 254 -268.[C]
16. *Sørensen, Sarnikar, & Oaxaca (2014). Do you receive a lighter prison sentence because you are a woman or a white? An economic analysis of the federal criminal sentencing guidelines, E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 14 (1), 1-54.
17. Weltz, Spaeth, *Taylor, Rollins, et al. (2014). Cheatgrass invasion and woody species encroachment in the Great Basin: benefit of conservation, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 69 (2), 39A-44A.
18. Xu, Zeng, *Song, & Lone (2014). Willingness to pay for red wines in China, Journal of Wine Research, 25 (4), 265-280.
19. Zheng, Wang, & *Song (2014). Pay satisfaction of employees: a case study from a Chinese state-owned science institute, Social Indicators Research, 119 (3), 1219-1231.[A]

1. Cargill & O'Driscoll (2013). Federal Reserve independence: reality or myth, Cato Journal, 33 (3), 417-435.
2. Depew & *Sørensen (2013). The elasticity of labor supply to the firm over the business cycle, Labour Economics, 24 (C), 196-204.[A]
3. Dobra & Dobra (2013). State mineral production taxes and mining law reform, Resources Policy, 38 (2), 162-168.[B]
4. Durham, Roelofs, *Sørensen, & Standifird (2013). A laboratory study of auctions with buy price, Economic Inquiry, 51 (2), 1357-1373.[A]
5. *Fossen & Büttner (2013). The returns to education for opportunity entrepreneurs, necessity entrepreneurs, and paid employees, Economics of Education Review, 37, 66-84.[A]
6. *Fossen & Rostam-Afschar (2013). Precautionary and entrepreneurial savings: new evidence from German households, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75 (4), 528-555.[A]
7. Gao, Liu, & *Song (2013). Technological capacity, product position, and firm competitiveness, The Chinese Economy, 46 (1), 55-75.[B]
8. James, Sheley, Erickson, Rollins, *Taylor, et al. (2013). A systems approach to restoring degraded drylands, Journal of Applied Ecology, 50 (3), 730-739.
9. Kim, Zhu, *Harris, & Alevy (2013). Developing LP-SAM to examine regional economic impact: regional economic impact from wildfires, The Review of Regional Studies, 42, 207-221.[C]
10. Melkonyan & *Taylor (2013). Regulatory policy design for agroecosystem management on public rangelands, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95 (3), 606-627.[A*]
11. *Mukhopadhyay & Grossbard (2013). Children, spousal love, and happiness: an economic analysis, Review of Economics of the Household, 11 (3), 447-467.[A]
12. *Mukhopadhyay & Wendel (2013). Evaluating an employee wellness program, International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, 13 (4), 177-199.[B]
13. *Nichols & *Tosun (2013). The elasticity of casino gambling, in Oxford Handbook of Gambling Economics, ch. 3, 37-54, edited by Vaughan Williams & Siegel (Oxford University Press, New York, NY).
14. *Pingle (2013). Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes, Public Choice, 160 (3), 481-499.[A]
15. Schiller & *Mukhopadhyay (2013). Long-term trends in relative earnings mobility, Social Science Quarterly, 94 (4), 881-893.[B]
16. *Taylor, Rollins, Kobayashi, & Tausch (2013). The economics of fuel management: wildfire, invasive plants, and the evolution of sagebrush rangelands in the western United States, Journal of Environmental Management, 126, 157-173.[A]
17. *Tosun (2013). Aging and its impact on municipal credit, Municipal Finance Journal, 33 (3), 33-55.
18. Zheng, Li, *Song, & Yu (2013). Central government’s infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: a spatial panel analysis, China Economic Review, 27 (3), 264-276.[A]

1. Caliendo, *Fossen, & Kritikos (2012). Trust, positive reciprocity, and negative reciprocity: do these traits impact entrepreneurial dynamics?, Journal of Economic Psychology, 33 (2), 394-409.[A]
2. Cargill (2012). A critical assessment of measures of central bank independence, Economic Inquiry, 51 (1), 260-272.[A]
3. Cargill (2012). Beyond our means: why America spends while the world saves, Pacific Affairs, 85 (4), 793-794.[B]
4. Copeland, Edberg, Panorska, & Wendel (2012). Applying business intelligence concepts to medicaid claim fraud detection, Journal of Information Systems Applied Research, 5 (1), 51-60.
5. Ding & *Song (2012). Traffic paradoxes and economic solutions, Journal of Urban Management, 1 (1), 63-76.
6. Evans, Rollins, & Christman (2012). The frying pan or the fire: public attitudes about using herbicides to manage invasive weeds, Environmental Economics, 3 (3), 108-121.
7. *Fossen (2012). Gender differences in entrepreneurial choice and risk aversion: a decomposition based on a microeconometric model, Applied Economics, 44 (14), 1795-1812.[A]
8. Gao, Liu, *Song, & Zheng (2012). Technology capacity, product position and firm’s competitiveness: an empirical analysis, The Chinese Economy, 46 (1), 55-74.[B]
9. Giertz & *Tosun (2012). Migration elasticities, fiscal federalism, and the ability of states to redistribute income, National Tax Journal, 65 (4), 1069-1092.[A]
10. *Guerrero & *Parker (2012). The effect of federal government size on long-term economic growth in the United States, 1791-2009, Modern Economy, 3 (8), 949-957.
11. *Guerrero, Stone, & Sundali (2012). Fear in asset allocation during and after stock market crashes, Advances in Behavioral Finance & Economics: The Journal of the Academy of Behavioral finance and Economics, 2 (1), 50-81.
12. Kobayashi, Moeltner, & Rollins (2012). Latent threshold analysis of choice data with multiple bids and response options, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94 (1): 189-208.[A*]
13. Li & *Song (2012). Why is housing price so high in urban China, Journal of China and Global Economics, 1 (1), 39-42.
14. *Mukhopadhyay (2012). The effects of the 1978 Pregnancy Discrimination Act on female labor supply, International Economic Review, 53 (4), 1133-1153.[A*]
15. *Mukhopadhyay & Oxborrow (2012). The value of an employment based green card, Demography, 49 (1), 219-237.[A]
16. *Nichols (2012). The impact of visiting team travel on game outcomes and betting markets in the NFL, Journal of Sports Economics, 15 (1), 78-96.[B]
17. Nota & *Song (2012). Further analysis of the Zipf's Law: does the rank-size rule really exist?, Journal of Urban Management, 1 (2), 19-31.
18. *Pingle & Melkonyan (2012). To believe or not believe…or not decide: a decision-theoretic model of agnosticism, Rationality and Society, 24 (4), 408–441.[B]
19. Pippen & *Tosun (2012). Political economy of taxing services in the United States, Public Finance and Management, 12 (1), 1-23.[B]
20. Rollins & *Taylor (2012). The economics of EMIPM on Great Basin rangelands, Rangelands, 34 (6), 48-52.
21. *Song, Wang, & Zheng (2012). Industrial upgrade, employment shock and land centralization in China, Contemporary Economic Policy, 30 (4), 523-532.[B]
22. *Sørensen, Sarnikar, & Oaxaca (2012). Race and gender differences under federal sentencing guidelines, American Economic Review, 102 (3), 256-260.[A*]
23. Sundali, Stone, & *Guerrero (2012). The effect of setting goals and emotions on asset allocation decisions, Managerial Finance, 38 (11), 1008-1031.[B]
24. *Taylor & Rollins (2012). Using ecological models to coordinate valuation of ecological change on western rangelands for ex post application to policy analysis, Western Economics Forum, 11 (1), 13-21.[C]
25. *Tosun, Williamson, & Yakovlev (2012). Population aging, elderly migration and education spending: intergenerational conflict revisited, Public Budgeting and Finance, 32 (2), 25-39.[C]
26. *Yang (2012). Break point estimators for a slope shift: levels versus first differences, The Econometrics Journal, 15 (1), 154-169.[A]
27. *Yang & Vogelsang (2012). Serial correlation robust LM type tests for a shift in trend, Advances in Econometrics, 30.
28. Zheng, Xu, Wang, & *Song (2012). Willingness to pay for traceable pork: evidence from Beijing, China, China Agricultural Economic Review, 4 (2), 200-215.[C]

1. Cargill (2011). The cleanest race: how North Koreans see themselves and why it matters, Pacific Affairs, 84 (2), 371-373.[B]
2. Cargill & *Parker (2011). Economic reform and alternatives for North Korea, in The Survival of North Korea: Essays on Strategy, Economics, and International Relations, ch. 6, pp. 99-115, edited by Kim, Roehrig, & Seliger (McFarland & Co.).
3. Curtis, Bishop, & *Harris (2011). Economic feasibility of wine production in the arid U.S.: a northwest Nevada example, Journal of Wine Economics, 5 (2), 256-269.[C]
4. Dong, *Song, & Zhu (2011). Industrial structure and economic fluctuation: evidence from China, Social Science Journal, 48, 468-477.[C]
5. *Fossen (2011). The private equity premium puzzle revisited: new evidence on the role of heterogeneous risk attitudes, Economica, 78 (312), 656-675.[A]
6. *Fossen & Glocker (2011). Expected future earnings, taxation, and university enrollment: a microeconometric model with uncertainty, International Tax and Public Finance, 18 (6), 688-723.[B]
7. *Guerrero & *Parker (2011). The effect of government purchases on economic growth in Japan, in Asia and China in the Global Economy, ch. 13, 381-407, edited by Cheung & Ma (World Scientific Publishing Co., Pte. Ltd.).
8. Hammond & *Tosun (2011). The impact of local decentralization on economic growth: evidence from U.S. counties, Journal of Regional Science, 51 (1), 47-64.[A]
9. Hendrickson & *Nichols (2011). The lights went out in Georgia: explaining commercial bank failures in the 21st century, Academy of Business Journal, 1, 36-68.
10. Hendrickson & *Nichols (2011). How do predatory lending laws affect bank performance?, Academy of Banking Studies Journal, 10 (1), 1-22.
11. *Mukhopadhyay, *Song, & Zhu (2011). Employment and earnings of low income residents in urban China: the role of social safety net, The Chinese Economy, 44 (1), 6-17.[B]
12. *Nichols & Hendrickson (2011). Was the financial crisis the result of ineffective policy and too much regulation? An empirical investigation, Journal of Banking Regulation, 12 (3), 236-251.[C]
13. *Parker (2011). Will history repeat itself? Nevada's economy after the crash, The Nevada Review, 3 (1), 4-17.
14. Skidmore & *Tosun (2011). Property value assessment growth limits, tax base erosion, and regional in-migration, Public Finance Review, 39 (2), 256-287.[B]
15. *Song, Zhu, & Chen (2011). Equal work opportunity but unequal income: sex disparities among low-income households in urban China, The Chinese Economy, 44 (1), 39-45.[B]
16. Tian, Lo, Lin, & *Song (2011). Cross-region FDI productivity spillovers in transition economies: evidence from China, Post-Communist Economies, 23 (1), 105-118.[B]
17. *Yang & Vogelsang (2011). Fixed-B analysis of LM-type tests for a shift in mean, Econometrics Journal, 14 (3), 438-456.[A]
18. Zheng, Wang, *Song, & Zhong (2011). Farmers' behaviors and performance in cooperatives: case study in Jilin Province of China, Social Science Journal, 48, 449-457, 2011.[C]

1. Bravo, *Mukhopadhyay, & Todd (2010). How school vouchers affect educational, earnings and employment outcomes: evidence from Chile, Quantitative Economics, 1 (1), 50.[A*]
2. Caliendo, *Fossen, & Kritikos (2010). The impact of risk attitudes on entrepreneurial survival, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 76 (1), 45-63.[A*]
3. Curtis, Cowee, Kim, & *Harris (2010). evaluating returns to cool season quality characteristics for niche equine feed markets, Journal of Agribusiness, 28 (1), 1-18.
4. Hu, Cox, *Harris, & Wright (2010). Understanding firm’s relocation decisions using self-reported factor importance rating, Review of Regional Studies, 38, 67-88.[C]
5. Kim, *Harris, & Vusovic (2010). Efficiency analysis of the United States biotechnology industry: clustering enhances productivity, The Journal of Agrobiotechnology Management and Economics, 12 (3/4), 422-436.
6. Kobayashi, Rollins, & Evans (2010). Sensitivity of WTP estimates to definition of ‘yes’: reinterpreting expressed response intensity, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 39 (1), 37-55.[B]
7. Li, Liu, & *Song (2010). Export relationships among China, Japan, and South Korea, Review of Development Economics, 14 (3), 547-562.[B]
8. *Mukhopadhyay (2010). Religion, religiosity and educational attainment of immigrants to the USA, Review of Economics of the Household, 9 (4), 539-553.[A]
9. *Mukhopadhyay & Wendel (2010). Is post-smoking-cessation weight-gain a significant trigger for relapse?, Applied Economics, 43 (24), 3449-3457.[A]
10. *Pingle (2010). Using gambling to teach insurance principles, Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations, 2, 82-91.
11. *Pingle & Melkonyan (2010). Ambiguity, pessimism, and rational religious choice, Theory and Decision, 69, 417–438.[A]
12. *Pingle & *Mukhopadhyay (2010). Private money as a competing medium of exchange, Journal of Macroeconomics, 32 (2), 541-554.[A]
13. *Tosun (2010). Middle East and Western Asia, in Local Government Finance: The Challenges of the 21st Century, ch. 7, 233-253, edited by Martinez-Vazquez & Smoke (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK).
14. *Tosun & Yilmaz (2010). Centralization, decentralization and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, Middle East Development Journal, 2 (1), 1-14.[C]
15. Zheng, Wang, Wang, & *Song (2010). Do nutrition and health affect migrant workers' income? Some evidence from Beijing, China, China & World Economy, 18 (5), 105-124.

Comparing Wage Gains from Small and Mass Scale Immigrant Legalization Programs [PDF]
Author: Mukhopadhyay, Sankar. Abstract: In this paper I estimate the difference in wage gains from legalization between immigrants who were legalized on the basis of family ties, or smaller scale legalization programs, and those who were legalized in a large scale amnesty program (the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, IRCA). Estimates suggest that the increase in wage after legalization is 11.7% higher for immigrants who were legalized on the basis of family ties, or smaller scale legalization programs, compared to IRCA beneficiaries. Further analysis suggests that supply shock restricted the wage gains of male - but not female - IRCA beneficiaries. Results also show that previously illegal immigrants receive a lower return to U.S. education, and work experience acquired as illegal workers, than the return legal immigrants receive from similar U.S. experiences. 

Choosing the Right Policy to Promote Defensible Space in the Wildland-Urban Interface: Evidence from Homeowners in Nevada [PDF]
Authors: Taylor, Michael H. & Christman, Laine & Rollins, Kimberly.

A Study of Financial Education in the Clark County School District [PDF]
Authors: Papadovasilaki, Dimitra & Parker, Elliott & Pingle, Mark. Abstract: This study reports the results of a financial literacy test given to more than four thousand students in 19 Southern Nevada secondary schools as a pre-test in advance of a financial education curriculum and again as a post-test. The schools vary demographically, and the delivery of the curriculum also varied. The results indicate male and Hispanic students exhibit lower levels of financial literacy; Asian and Black students improved less significantly. Financial literacy improved more when students had higher math scores, when the families of students had higher incomes and did not qualify for lunch support,
when class sizes were smaller, and when teachers were more experienced. In general, the results of this study indicate actions that would improve education and would also improve financial literacy.

Kidnap Insurance and its Impact on Kidnapping Outcomes [PDF]
Authors: Pingle, Mark & Fink, Alexander. Abstract: In the developing world, kidnapping is relatively common, and a market for kidnap insurance has arisen in response. We provide a model that allows us to analyze how kidnap insurance affects the interaction between the kidnapper and the victim's family when both are self-interested and have complete knowledge. We find that a market for kidnap insurance can be supported because it benefits a risk averse family, as long as the introduction of insurance does not increase the risk of kidnapping too much. Families should fully insure if purchasing insurance does not increase the probability of kidnapping, and partially insure otherwise. Kidnapping insurance allows families to redeem hostages from kidnappers who are more willing to kill, which reduces the number of kidnapping fatalities as long as the insurance does not increase the risk of kidnapping too much.

The Impact of Legalized Casino Gambling on Crime [PDF]
Authors: Nichols, Mark & Tosun, Mehmet. Abstract: We examine the impact of legalized casino gambling, including Indian casinos, on crime. Using county-level data between 1994 and 2009, the impact that casino legalization had on crime is examined. Our results show an increase in crime associated with casinos in some circumstances, but not others. Crime impact results are quite sensitive to data, sample periods and econometric specifications. In addition to known Part 1 offenses (assault, burglary, larceny, robbery, rape, and auto theft), we also examine various arrest classifications, including driving under the influence (DUI), fraud, and prostitution. Again, casinos are associated with a statistically significant increase in some circumstances but not in others, with results depending on econometric specification. In no circumstances, however, are casinos and crime significantly negatively correlated.

Risk Externalities, Wildfire Hazard, and Private Investment to Mitigate Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface [PDF]
Authors: Taylor, Michael & Christman, Laine. Abstract: Homeowners in areas adjacent to wildlands - in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) - can mitigate the risk that their home will be damaged in a wildfire by creating "defensible space" on their property. This article explores homeowners' incentives to invest in defensible space using a unique data set on 35 WUI communities in Nevada. This is the first study to analyze homeowners' incentives to invest in defensible space, comparing across both forested (alpine forest) and non-forested (sagebrush rangeland, pinyon pine and juniper woodland, grassland) communities. This article explores two explanations for perceived homeowner underinvestment in defensible space: (i) homeowners' misjudging their wildfire risk and (ii) spatial interdependencies between neighbor's defensible space investments due to risk externalities. We find no evidence to suggest that homeowners' systematically misjudge their wildfire risk, though we do find evidence of strategic complementarities in defensible space investments due to risk externalities in certain communities, depending on predominant vegetation. Our results suggest that wildland fire policy to promote defensible space should focus on financial and regulatory barriers to investment in defensible space, rather than on educational programs, and that "tipping policies" to encourage early adopters to invest in defensible space may be appropriate in communities where the majority of homeowners have not invested in defensible.

The Price Elasticity of Marijuana Demand [PDF]
Authors: Davis, Adam & Nichols, Mark. Abstract: This paper uses crowd-sourced transaction data from a cross-section of the US to examine demand for marijuana. State and regional variations in consumption, price and quality are explored. Price elasticity of demand estimates range between -0.3 and -0.6. Noticeable price differences are found between high, medium, and low quality marijuana, with high quality marijuana, at $13.57 per gram, 144% greater than low quality marijuana, at $5.55 a gram. Significant variation is also found by medical marijuana status and census region, although this variation depends critically on the quality of the marijuana.

Riverboat Casino Gambling Impacts on Employment and Income in Host and Surrounding Counties [PDF]
Authors: Geisler, Karl R. & Nichols, Mark W.

Another Look at Non-Renewable Resource Exhaustion [PDF]
Authors: Dobra, John & Dobra, Matt. Abstract: This paper challenges the widely held hypothesis, considered as accepted scientific consensus in some circles, that modern industrial society is rapidly exhausting non-renewable resources. We argue that this paradigm is amiss and use copper availability as an example to demonstrate the problems with this consensus. In the 80 years for which reasonably reliable estimates of copper reserves and reserve life are available, there is no evidence of resource exhaustion. In addition, an analysis of the economics of resource exploration indicates that mining companies will treat exploration as an inventory control problem and trade off using limited capital resources between expanding inventories of reserves and generating current revenue through production. In the case of the copper industry, it is argued that there is little incentive for major copper producers to explore for more resources. Non producers, exploration companies do have an incentive for expanding reserves, but this does not change the conclusion that new copper resources are effectively not worth looking for. We also conjecture that, except for in rare and temporary circumstances, this conclusion is applicable to most non-renewable resources.

State Mineral Production Taxes and Mining Law Reform [PDF]
Authors: John Dobra, Matt Dobra Abstract: Fuel and leasable minerals mined in the United States have historically been subject to federal royalties while locatable minerals have not. In recent years there have been multiple attempts to alter this policy and subject locatable minerals to federal royalties as well; most recently the preliminary 2011 Obama budget included a gross royalty on hard-rock mining on public lands. This paper analyzes the issue of imposing such federal royalties from both a legal and economic perspective. From a legal perspective, it is argued that the state of western property rights precludes royalties on currently extant claims so revenues from a royalty would not be realized for many years. From an economic perspective, it is argued that the effect on revenue would be smaller than one might anticipate due to such a royalty crowding out state levies or encouraging vertical disintegration on the part of mining firms to avoid much of the burden of the royalty.

The Economics of Fuel Management: Wildfire, Invasive Species, and the Evolution of Sagebrush Rangelands in the Western United States [PDF]
Authors: Taylor, M., Rollins, K. and Kobayashi, M. Abstract: In this article we develop a simulation model for estimating the economic efficiency of fuel treatments and apply it to two sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin of the western United States: Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe and Mountain Big Sagebrush. These two ecosystems face the two most prominent resource management concerns in sagebrush ecosystems relative to wildfire: annual grass invasion and native conifer expansion. Our framework simulates long-run wildfire suppression costs with and without fuel treatments explicitly incorporating ecological dynamics, stochastic wildfire, uncertainty fuel treatment success, and ecological thresholds. Our results indicate that fuel treatment is only economically efficient on the basis of wildfire suppression costs savings when the two ecosystems are in relatively good ecological health. Our approach also allows us to analyze how uncertainty about the location of thresholds between ecological states influences the economic efficiency of fuel treatments, as well as the influence of shorter wildfire return intervals and improved treatment success rates.

An Examination of the Relation between State Fiscal Health and Amnesty Enactment [PDF]
Authors: Luitel, H.S. and Tosun, M.S. Abstract: Assuming a normal distribution of hazards, Dubin, Graetz, and Wilde (1992) analyze state tax amnesties in the 1980s and conclude that states run amnesties in response to revenue yield motive. Given the increased frequency with which states enacted amnesties during and after the 2001 recession, we investigate if there is a possible shift from revenue yield motive to fiscal stress motive. We find that the normal distribution of hazards assumption along with the multicollinearity problem led prior research to an erroneous conclusion, and that fiscal stress is indeed the main determinant of initial and repeated tax amnesties enacted by states between 1982 and 2005.

Economic Reform and Alternatives for North Korea [PDF]
Authors: Parker, E. and Cargill, T. Abstract: This chapter assesses the potential for reform in North Korea, and considers the lessons learned from economic reform and transition in China, the Soviet Union, and Central Europe. We focus in particular on the importance of reforms in the financial regime, and argue that in the absence of a major change in North Korea's environment, such as a crisis caused by reduced economic and/or political support from China, or increased access by the North Korean population to events in the rest of the world, the current situation is likely to continue for many years. North Korea will thus continue to alternate between declining, stagnant or mediocre economic growth. It will also continue to be a source of geo-political instability in the world in general and Asia in particular.

Embedding a Field Experiment in Contingent Valuation to Measure Context-Dependent Risk Preferences: Does Prospect Theory Explain Individual Responses for Wildfire Risk? [PDF]
Authors: Rollins, K. and M. Kobayashi Abstract: This paper contributes towards the development of an empirical approach applicable to contingent valuation to accommodate non-expected utility risk preferences. Combining elicitation approaches used in field experiments with contingent valuation, we embed an experimental design that systematically varies probabilities and losses across a survey sample in a willingness to pay elicitation format. We apply the proposed elicitation and estimation approaches to estimate the risk preferences of a representative homeowner who faces probabilistic wildfire risks and an investment option that reduces losses due to wildfire. Based on prospect theory, we estimate parameters of probability weighting, risk preferences and use individual characteristics as covariates for these parameters and as utility shifters. We find that risk preferences are consistent with prospect theory. We find that probability weighting may offer an explanation for respondents’ observed under investment in measures to reduce losses due to wildfire.

Latent Thresholds Analysis of Choice Data with Multiple Bids and Response Options [PDF]
Authors: Kobayashi, M., Moeltner, K. and Rollins, K. Abstract: In many stated preference settings stakeholders will be uncertain as to their exact willingness-to-pay for a proposed environmental amenity. To accommodate this possibility analysts have designed elicitation formats with multiple bids and response options that allow for the expression of uncertainty. We argue that the information content flowing from such elicitation has not yet been fully and efficiently exploited in existing contributions. We introduce a Latent Thresholds Estimator that focuses on the simultaneous identification of the full set of thresholds that delineate an individual's value space in accordance with observed response categories. Our framework provides a more complete picture of the underlying value distribution, the marginal effects of regressors, and the impact of bid designs on estimation efficiency. We show that the common practice of re-coding responses to derive point estimate of willingness-to-pay leaves useful information untapped and can produce misleading results if thresholds are highly correlated.

Regulatory Policy Design for Agroecosystem Management on Public Rangelands [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Taylor, M. Abstract: This paper analyzes regulatory design for agroecosystem management on public rangelands. We present an informational and institutional environment where three of the most prominent regulatory instruments on public rangelands – input regulation, cost-sharing/taxation, and performance regulation – can be defined and compared. The paper examines how the optimal regulation is shaped by the informational and institutional constraints faced by federal land management agencies (FLMAs) such as the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service. These constraints include informational asymmetries between ranchers and FLMAs, limitations on FLMAs’ ability to monitor ranch-level ecological conditions, and constraints on FLMAs’ actions due to budget limitations and restrictions on the level of penalties they can assess. The theoretical model extends the previous work of Baker (1992), Prendergast (2002), and Hueth and Melkonyan (2009) by considering optimal regulation by a budget-constrained regulator in an environment of asymmetric information and moral hazard.

The Effect of Government Purchases on Economic Growth in Japan [PDF]
Authors: Guerrero, F. and Parker, E. Abstract: We consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between government expenditures and real GDP growth in postwar Japan. After studying the time-series properties of these variables, we find that government consumption and government investment both have a positive and causal effect on growth. This suggests that fiscal policy may not have been as ineffective during the last two decades of Japan’s stagnant growth as some have suggested, but may have helped to prevent an even more severe balance-sheet recession after the collapse of the Japanese bubble economy.

To Believe or Not Believe… or Not Decide: A Decision-Theoretic Model of Agnosticism [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M. Abstract: Using basic decision-theory, we construct a theory of agnosticism, where agnosticism is defined as choosing not to choose a religion. The theory indicates agnosticism can be supported as a rational choice if (a) adopting agnosticism provides in-life benefits relative to any religion, (b) the perceived payoff for agnosticism after death is not too much less than any religion, (c) no religion has a high perceived likelihood of truth, (d) probability of death is neither too high nor too low, or (e) it is less costly to switch from agnosticism to a given religion than from one religion to another, while at the same time there is a reasonable likelihood an informative signal may be received in life as to the truth of various religions.

Using Gambling to Teach Insurance Principles [PDF]
Authors: Mark Pingle Abstract: A basic understanding of insurance principles is useful for making personal finance decisions and for considering public policy issues. Yet, insurance concepts tend to be less intuitive, more difficult for students to grasp, than other concepts. This paper shows how fundamental insurance principles can be taught by relating them to the principles underlying gambling, the game of roulette in particular. This approach has been used successfully with college freshmen taking macroeconomics at the University of Nevada, Reno. After hearing a lecture given using this approach, students tend to come alive with questions, can understand why they might not want to buy an extended warrantee the next time it is offered, can understand why investing in the stock market is usually different than gambling, and can even start to see the subtleties in public policy issues involving insurance. JEL Classification:

Willingness to Pay Estimation When Protest Beliefs are not Separable [PDF]
Authors: Kimberly Rollins, M.D.R. Evans, Mimako Kobayashi and Anita Castledine Abstract: Public good attributes that are correlated with protest beliefs but not separable from the good's value, would affect stated preference estimates of the WTP for the public good. Survey data collected to value a program to prevent ecosystem losses on Nevada rangelands, where the majority of land is publicly owned and managed, reveal more than half of the respondents exhibiting some protest belief. Of these, about 60% voted 'yes' to some nonzero bid amount. By treating protest beliefs and opposition to the proposed program as separate concepts, we systematically analyze their determinants and impacts on WTP. In this framework, people with protest beliefs may or may not vote 'no' to all bids and people may, without being protesters, answer 'no' to all dollar amounts. Multinomial logit regression results suggest that factors motivating people to protest and/or oppose the proposed program are so diverse that a single model does not provide a good fit. We estimate nested models and conclude that different underlying processes determine WTP for "protesters" ($34.02) and "non-protesters" ($69.56).

Benefit Transfer from Multiple Contingent Experiments: A Flexible Two-Step Model Combining Individual Choice Data with Community Characteristics [PDF]
Authors: Klaus Moeltner, Robert J. Johnston and Randall S. Rosenberger Abstract: This study proposes a new approach to utilize information from existing choice experiments to predict policy outcomes for a transfer setting. Recognizing the difficulties from pooling raw data from experiments with different designs and sub-populations we first re-estimate all underlying Random Utility Models individually, and then combine them in a second stage process to form a weighted mixture density for the generation of policy-relevant welfare estimates. Using data from recent choice experiments on farmland preservation we illustrate that our strategy is more robust to transfer inaccuracies than single-site approaches. The specification of "intelligent" mixture weights will be a fruitful ground for future research in the area of Benefit Transfer.

Invasive Weeds, Wildfire, and Rancher Decision Making in the Great Basin [PDF]
Authors: Kobayashi, M. and Rollins, K. Abstract: A numerical dynamic model is developed to characterize the decision problem of a rancher operating on rangelands in northern Nevada that are affected by invasive annual grasses and wildfire. The model incorporates decisions about herd size management of a cow-calf operation and fuels treatment to reduce the size of rangeland wildfires. Currently, high transactions costs to obtain permits to implement land treatments on federally-owned rangeland appear to limit rancher involvement. The results of the model suggest that, even if the transactions are removed, ranch income motives alone are likely insufficient for private ranchers to adopt preventative land treatments. The current treatment cost ($20 per acre at the minimum) appears to be prohibitively expensive relative to the benefits derived from the treatments under the low-productivity, semi-arid rangeland conditions.

Religion, Religiosity and Educational Attainment of Immigrants to the USA [PDF]
Authors: Mukhopadhyay S. Abstract: This paper quantifies the association between religions, religiosity and educational attainment of new lawful immigrants to the U.S. This paper considers a broad set of religions that includes most of the major religions of the world. Using data from the New Immigrant Survey (2003), we show that affiliation with religion is not necessarily associated with an increase in educational attainment. Muslim and “Other religion” immigrants have less education compared to the immigrants who are not affiliated with any religion. However, affiliation with the Jewish religion is associated with higher educational attainment for males. With regard to religiosity, our results show that high religiosity is associated with lower educational attainment, especially for females. We also outline alternative frameworks that provide insight about the mechanisms that link religion and religiosity with educational attainment.

Valuing the Prevention of an Infestation: The Threat of the New Zealand Mud Snail in Northern Nevada [PDF]
Authors: Allison Davis and Klaus Moeltner Abstract: The Truckee / Carson / Walker River Watershed in Northern Nevada is under an imminent threat of infestation by the New Zealand Mud Snail, an aquatic nuisance species with the potential to harm recreational fisheries. We combine a utility-theoretic system-demand model of recreational angling with a Bayesian econometric framework to provide estimates of trip and welfare losses under different types of regulatory control policies. We find that such losses can be substantial, warranting immediate investments in preemptive strategies via public outreach and awareness campaigns.

2008 Research

Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M. Abstract: Using a relatively mild restriction on the beliefs of the MMEU−preference functional, in which the decision maker’s degree of ambiguity and degree of pessimism are each parameterized, we present a rather general theory of religious choice in the decision theory tradition, one that can resolve dilemmas, address the many Gods objection, and address the inherent ambiguity. Using comparative static analysis, we are able to show how changes in either the degree of ambiguity or the degree of pessimism can lead a decision maker to “convert” from one religion to another. We illustrate the theory of religious choice using an example where the decision maker perceives three possible religious alternatives.

Further Analysis of the Zipf Law: Does the Rank-Size Rule Really Exist? [PDF]
Authors: Nota, F. and Song, S. Abstract: The widely-used Zipf law has two striking regularities: excellent fit and close-to-one exponent. When the exponent equals to one, the Zipf law collapses into the rank-size rule. This paper further analyzes the Zipf exponent. By changing the sample size, the truncation point, and the mix of cities in the sample, we found that the exponent is close to one only for some selected sub-samples. Using the values of estimated exponent from the rolling sample method, we obtained an elasticity of the exponent with respect to sample size.

Industrial Upgrade, Employment Shock and Land Centralization in China [PDF]
Authors: Song, S., Wang, C. and Zheng, J. Abstract: This paper investigates the relationships among industrial upgrading, mid-aged peasants’ non-farm employment, and land conversion systems. We prove that China’s efforts to upgrade its industries generate a negative employment shock on mid-aged peasant workers, forcing some of them to return to their home villages. The current lump-sum land acquisition system, however, will neither help peasant workers deal with the adverse employment shock nor promote land centralization for industrial and urban uses. On contrary, land cooperation, an emerging land centralization system, will help peasant workers mitigate the adverse employment shock and centralize rural land for nonagricultural purposes.

Paradoxes of Traffic Flow and Economics of Congestion Pricing [PDF]
Authors: Ding, C., Song, S. and Zhang, Y. Abstract: This paper utilizes a unique county-level dataset to examine technical efficiency and technology gap in China’s agriculture. We classify the counties into four regions with distinctive levels of economic development, and hence production technologies. A meta-frontier analysis is applied to the counties. We find that although the eastern counties have the highest efficiency scores with respect to the regional frontier but the northeastern region leads in terms of agricultural production technology nationwide. Meanwhile, the mean efficiency of the northeastern counties is particularly low, suggesting technology and knowledge diffusion within region might help to improve production efficiency and thus output.

Private Money as a Competing Medium of Exchange [PDF]
Authors: Pingle M. and Mukhopadhyay, S. Abstract: Using a relatively mild restriction on the beliefs of the MMEU−preference functional, in which the decision maker’s degree of ambiguity and degree of pessimism are each parameterized, we present a rather general theory of religious choice in the decision theory tradition, one that can resolve dilemmas, address the many Gods objection, and address the inherent ambiguity. Using comparative static analysis, we are able to show how changes in either the degree of ambiguity or the degree of pessimism can lead a decision maker to “convert” from one religion to another. We illustrate the theory of religious choice using an example where the decision maker perceives three possible religious alternatives.

Religion and Faith: A Decision Theory Perspective [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M. Abstract: We examine the implications of decision theory for religious choice and evangelism, under the assumption that people choose their religion. The application of decision theory leads us to a broad definition of religion and a particular definition of faith, each related to the uncertainty associated with what happens to a person after death. We examine two extremes: total ambiguity and no ambiguity. For total ambiguity, we show there is “designer religion,” which is a religion that will capture all decision makers applying any one of the standard decision criteria. For no ambiguity, we characterize when a decision maker will find new religious information more valuable and we characterize a “miracle” in a specific way.

Studying Economic Growth: An Avenue for Enhancing Student Empirical Skills [PDF]
Authors: Pingle M. and Sipic, T. Abstract: The study of economic growth provides an opportunity for students to exercise their empirical skills, reinforcing the tool building that occurs in statistics and math courses. Descriptive analysis allows lower level students to develop their ability to work with data as they examine how fast the economy has grown, ascertain the regularity versus irregularity of this growth, test whether the U.S. economy is slowing down, and perform simple extrapolation forecasts. Explanatory analysis allows higher level students in macro and econometric courses to see how theory and empirics can complement each other, and see why econometric issues matter, as they seek estimates for parameters consistent with the theory. The activities presented here may be of interest to those seeking to enhance the teaching of analytical skills “across the curriculum.”

2008 Research

Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M. Abstract: Using a relatively mild restriction on the beliefs of the MMEU−preference functional, in which the decision maker’s degree of ambiguity and degree of pessimism are each parameterized, we present a rather general theory of religious choice in the decision theory tradition, one that can resolve dilemmas, address the many Gods objection, and address the inherent ambiguity. Using comparative static analysis, we are able to show how changes in either the degree of ambiguity or the degree of pessimism can lead a decision maker to “convert” from one religion to another. We illustrate the theory of religious choice using an example where the decision maker perceives three possible religious alternatives.

Further Analysis of the Zipf Law: Does the Rank-Size Rule Really Exist? [PDF]
Authors: Nota, F. and Song, S. Abstract: The widely-used Zipf law has two striking regularities: excellent fit and close-to-one exponent. When the exponent equals to one, the Zipf law collapses into the rank-size rule. This paper further analyzes the Zipf exponent. By changing the sample size, the truncation point, and the mix of cities in the sample, we found that the exponent is close to one only for some selected sub-samples. Using the values of estimated exponent from the rolling sample method, we obtained an elasticity of the exponent with respect to sample size.

Industrial Upgrade, Employment Shock and Land Centralization in China [PDF]
Authors: Song, S., Wang, C. and Zheng, J. Abstract: This paper investigates the relationships among industrial upgrading, mid-aged peasants’ non-farm employment, and land conversion systems. We prove that China’s efforts to upgrade its industries generate a negative employment shock on mid-aged peasant workers, forcing some of them to return to their home villages. The current lump-sum land acquisition system, however, will neither help peasant workers deal with the adverse employment shock nor promote land centralization for industrial and urban uses. On contrary, land cooperation, an emerging land centralization system, will help peasant workers mitigate the adverse employment shock and centralize rural land for nonagricultural purposes.

Paradoxes of Traffic Flow and Economics of Congestion Pricing [PDF]
Authors: Ding, C., Song, S. and Zhang, Y. Abstract: This paper utilizes a unique county-level dataset to examine technical efficiency and technology gap in China’s agriculture. We classify the counties into four regions with distinctive levels of economic development, and hence production technologies. A meta-frontier analysis is applied to the counties. We find that although the eastern counties have the highest efficiency scores with respect to the regional frontier but the northeastern region leads in terms of agricultural production technology nationwide. Meanwhile, the mean efficiency of the northeastern counties is particularly low, suggesting technology and knowledge diffusion within region might help to improve production efficiency and thus output.

Private Money as a Competing Medium of Exchange [PDF]
Authors: Pingle M. and Mukhopadhyay, S. Abstract: Using a relatively mild restriction on the beliefs of the MMEU−preference functional, in which the decision maker’s degree of ambiguity and degree of pessimism are each parameterized, we present a rather general theory of religious choice in the decision theory tradition, one that can resolve dilemmas, address the many Gods objection, and address the inherent ambiguity. Using comparative static analysis, we are able to show how changes in either the degree of ambiguity or the degree of pessimism can lead a decision maker to “convert” from one religion to another. We illustrate the theory of religious choice using an example where the decision maker perceives three possible religious alternatives.

Religion and Faith: A Decision Theory Perspective [PDF]
Authors: Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M. Abstract: We examine the implications of decision theory for religious choice and evangelism, under the assumption that people choose their religion. The application of decision theory leads us to a broad definition of religion and a particular definition of faith, each related to the uncertainty associated with what happens to a person after death. We examine two extremes: total ambiguity and no ambiguity. For total ambiguity, we show there is “designer religion,” which is a religion that will capture all decision makers applying any one of the standard decision criteria. For no ambiguity, we characterize when a decision maker will find new religious information more valuable and we characterize a “miracle” in a specific way.

Studying Economic Growth: An Avenue for Enhancing Student Empirical Skills [PDF]
Authors: Pingle M. and Sipic, T. Abstract: The study of economic growth provides an opportunity for students to exercise their empirical skills, reinforcing the tool building that occurs in statistics and math courses. Descriptive analysis allows lower level students to develop their ability to work with data as they examine how fast the economy has grown, ascertain the regularity versus irregularity of this growth, test whether the U.S. economy is slowing down, and perform simple extrapolation forecasts. Explanatory analysis allows higher level students in macro and econometric courses to see how theory and empirics can complement each other, and see why econometric issues matter, as they seek estimates for parameters consistent with the theory. The activities presented here may be of interest to those seeking to enhance the teaching of analytical skills “across the curriculum.”

An Agent-Based Model of Behavior in “Beauty Contest” Games [PDF]
Authors: Nichols, M.W. and Radzicki, M.J. Abstract: Recently, computer simulation, particularly agent-based modeling, has grown in popularity as a method to uncover macro patterns and developments that emerge from simple micro behavior. The present paper combines both techniques by using protocol analysis to uncover player strategies in an experiment and encoding those strategies in an agent-based computer simulation. In particular, Keynes’ (1936) beauty contest analogy is simulated in a number-guessing context. Several researchers have conducted experiments asking subjects to play “p-beauty contest games” in order to compare the experimental results with those predicted by the game-theoretic, deductive reasoning concept of iterated dominance. Our results are compared with those found experimentally in order to demonstrate the usefulness of a combining agent-based modeling with protocol analysis.

Further Analysis of the Zipf's Law: Does the Rank-Size Rule Really Exist? [PDF]
Authors: Fungisai Nota and Shunfeng Song Abstract: The widely-used Zipf’s law has two striking regularities. One is its excellent fit; the other is its close-to-one exponent. When the exponent equals to one, the Zipf’s law collapses into the rank-size rule. This paper further analyzes the Zipf exponent. By changing the sample size, the truncation point, and the mix of cities in the sample, we found that the exponent is close to one only for some selected sub-samples. Small samples of large cities alone provide higher value of the exponent whereas small cities introduce high variance and lower the value of the exponent. Using the values of estimated exponent from the rolling sample method, we obtained an elasticity of the exponent with respect to sample size. We concluded that the rank-size rule is not an economic regularity but a statistical phenomenon.

Gambling Policy in the European Union: Monopolies, Market Access, Economic Rents, and Competitive Pressures among Gaming Sectors in the Member States [PDF]
Authors: Eadington, W.R. Abstract: This study examines the conflicts within the European Union regarding protected status accorded to legal commercial gaming industries and the principles of harmonization that direct EU economic policy. Member States are permitted to constrain competition for gambling services as long as the primary purpose is to protect citizens from unintended negative consequences associated with the activities. Also, because of monopoly status, high tax rates, or government ownership, many EU gaming industries have become major contributors to government coffers or for funding for “good causes.” Legal challenges by private companies trying to participate in these protected markets have led to decisions by the European Court of Justice that have questioned such protected status. A number of key economic metrics for European gaming industries are presented, and competitive dimensions of EU casino industries are examined in comparisons to trends elsewhere.

Impact of Trade on Productivity of Skilled and Unskilled Intensive Industries: A Cross-Country Investigation [PDF]
Authors: Abizadeh, S., Pandey, M. and Tosun, M Abstract: This paper examines the effect of trade openness on the productivity of skilled labor intensive and unskilled labor intensive industries in the group of 20 OECD countries. Using panel data and fixed effects approach, we find that skilled workers’ relative gains in productivity exceed those of their unskilled counterpart. Given this differential impact of trade openness on the relative productivity of the skilled and unskilled intensive industries, our findings lend support to the conclusions of past studies that skilled labor is likely to be more pro trade than unskilled labor.

Intercept and Recall: Examining Avidity Carryover in On-Site Collected Travel Data [PDF]
Authors: Moeltner, K. and Shonkweiler, J.S. Abstract: This study examines the proper estimation of trip demand and economic benefits for visitors to recreation sites when past-season trip information is elicited from travelers intercepted on-site. We show that the proper weighting of past season counts is different from the standard on-site correction appropriate for current-season counts. We find that for our sample of lake visitors relatively stronger preference or “avidity” for the interview site carries over across seasons. We further show that using the correct weighting of past trip counts is critical in deriving meaningful estimates of travel demand and economic benefits. A doubly-truncated count data framework to process such data. We compare this framework to past approaches based on ordered outcomes and truncated continuous densities using Bayesian estimation and model selection techniques. We find that all three frameworks (i) support the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in individual decision-making, and (ii) agree on the ranking of regulatory treatment effects. The count data framework exhibits superior efficiency and produces more informative predictive distributions for outcomes of interest. The continuous framework fails to allocate adequate probability mass to boundary outcomes, which are often of pivotal importance in these games.

Meta-Functional Benefit Transfer for Wetland Valuation: Making the Most of Small Samples [PDF]
Authors: Moeltner, K. and Woodward, R. Abstract: This study applies functional Benefit Transfer via Meta-Regression Modeling to derive valuation estimates for wetlands in an actual policy setting of proposed groundwater transfers in Eastern Nevada. We illustrate how Bayesian estimation techniques can be used to overcome small sample problems notoriously present in Meta-functional Benefit Transfer. The highlights of our methodology are (i) The hierarchical modeling of heteroskedasticity, (ii) The ability to incorporate additional information via refined priors, and (ii) The derivation of measures of model performance with the corresponding option of model-averaged Benefit Transfer predictions. Our results indicate that economic losses associated with the disappearance of these wetlands can be substantial and that primary valuation studies are warranted.

Meta-Regression and Benefit Transfer: Data Space, Model Space, and the Quest for ‘Optimal Scope’ [PDF]
Authors: Moeltner, K and Rosenberger, R.S. Abstract: Meta-functional Benefit Transfer, while conceptually attractive, is often plagued by the paucity of available source studies and related small sample problems. A broadening of scope of the Meta-Regression Model by adding data from “related, yet different” contexts or activities may circumvent these issues, but may not necessarily enhance the efficiency of transfer functions if the different contexts do not share policy-relevant parameters. We illustrate how different combinations of contexts can be interpreted as ‘data spaces’ which can then be explored for the most promising transfer function using Bayesian Model Search techniques. Our results indicate that for some scope-augmented data spaces model-averaged benefit predictions can be more efficient than those flowing from the baseline context and data.

Patience Versus Decisiveness in Decision-Making [PDF]
Authors: W.B. MacLeod and M. Pingle. Abstract: We examine the willingness to search among alternatives. We find fixed individual differences in this temperament measure. People may be usefully typed according to how they obtain improved choices. More patient subjects obtain improvement by effectively using decision resources, performing better when the decision is more complex. More decisive subjects obtain improvement by conserving valuable decision resources, performing better when the decision problem is simple. We find that a bonus incentive frame encourages patience, while a penalty frame encourages decisiveness. These results suggest an organization can enhance its performance by matching individual temperaments and incentive frames to decision tasks at hand.

Population Aging, Elderly Migration and Education Spending: Intergenerational Conflict Revisited [PDF]
Authors: Tosun, M., Williamson, C. and Yakovlev, P. Abstract: Elderly have been increasingly targeted as a group to enhance economic development and the tax base in communities. A major factor in their rise in importance is the rapid increase in the number of retired elderly through aging of the U.S. population. While recent literature on elderly migration tends to focus on how elderly migration patterns are influenced by state fiscal variables, the reverse effect from elderly population on fiscal variables is very plausible as shown to be the case for estate, inheritance, and gift taxes by Conway and Rork (2006). In this paper, we reexamine the intergenerational conflict in education financing raised by Poterba (1997) using U.S. state and county level data that allows to analyze how preferences for education might vary across different elderly age groups, which has not been explored before. Moreover, this paper uses a variety of advanced econometric techniques to estimate the impact of elderly population and elderly migration on education spending. Our state and county regression results broadly support the presence of intergenerational conflict in education financing. We also find dramatic age heterogeneity in preferences for education spending among elderly migrants.

Processing Data from Social Dilemma Experiments: A Bayesian Comparison of Parametric Estimators [PDF]
Authors: Moeltner, K., Murphy, J.J., Stranlund, J.K. and Velez, M.A. Abstract: Observed choices in Social Dilemma Games usually take the form of bounded integers. We propose a doubly-truncated count data framework to process such data. We compare this framework to past approaches based on ordered outcomes and truncated continuous densities using Bayesian estimation and model selection techniques. We find that all three frameworks (i) support the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in individual decision-making, and (ii) agree on the ranking of regulatory treatment effects. The count data framework exhibits superior efficiency and produces more informative predictive distributions for outcomes of interest. The continuous framework fails to allocate adequate probability mass to boundary outcomes, which are often of pivotal importance in these games.

Property Tax in Urban China [PDF]
Authors: Li, D. and Song, S. Abstract: This paper examines the urban housing sector of China and proposes a property tax reform. Over the past decade, housing price in urban China has been increasing dramatically because of strong demand for self-use, investment and speculation. The booming housing market, however, has brought several challenges for further development, such as housing affordability, inequality, and possible housing bubble. One strategy is to reform the current property tax system. Specifically, this paper proposes that China significantly reduces taxes in circulation but levies property tax during possession. Doing so will increase housing affordability because of lower transaction costs, reduce speculation because of higher cost of holding, stabilize fiscal system because of more sustainable tax revenues, and improve the efficiency and fairness of the property tax system because of the implementation of “ability-to-pay” and “who use who pay” principles.

The Effect of Federal Government Size on Long-Term Economic Growth in the United States, 1792-2004 [PDF]
Authors: Guerrero, F. and Parker, E. Abstract: In this paper, we consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real per-capita GDP in the United States, using available data going back to 1792. After studying the time-series properties of these variables for stationarity and cointegration, we investigate Granger causality in detail in the context of a Vector Error Correction Model. While we find causal evidence supporting Wagner’s Law, we find no evidence supporting the common assertion that a larger government sector leads to slower economic growth.

The Income Elasticity of Casino Revenues: Short-Run and Long-Run Estimates [PDF]
Authors: Nichols, M.W. and Tosun, M.S. Abstract: In this paper we examine how casino gambling revenues differ from other major tax revenues in growth and variability. We estimate the long-run and short-run income elasticities using state-level casino revenue and state, regional and national income. Our empirical analysis includes eleven states that have significant casino gambling. To estimate income elasticities, we run separate time-series regressions for each of these states, controlling for supply-side industry effects. Our findings show that Nevada’s casino revenue base growth is more sensitive to national than state income, while such growth is more tied to state and regional income in riverboat states. Casino revenue base growth is generally faster than taxable sales, but slower than taxable income. Short-run (immediate) elasticity is, on average, lower than estimates for sales and income taxes, with an equal or more rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium. These estimates also reveal greater variability when regional or national income changes are taken into consideration. This suggests that states that depend heavily on out-of-state visitors in their gambling operations may be more susceptible to changes in regional or national economic activity.

Urban Poor in China: A Case Study of Changsha [PDF]
Authors: Zhu, E. and Song, S. Abstract: Since the late 1970s, many state-owned enterprise employees have been laid off and more and more rural people have migrated to urban areas. In this massive laying-off and migration process, many laid-off workers and migrants have become urban poor. Using data collected from a survey on 1641 relatively low-income households in Changsha in January 2007, this paper compares migrant workers with their city counterpart regarding income, employment, education, and social support. Based on qualitative and regression analysis, we found that worker’s age, Hukou status, education, enterprise ownership, and contract length are significantly affecting the annual income. There exists a big gap in the coverage of social security between urban and migrant workers. This paper provides some policy recommendations.

VIP-room Contractual System of Macau’s Traditional Casino Industry [PDF]
Authors: Wang, W. and Eadington, W. Abstract: This study provides a systematic analysis of the VIP-room contractual system of Macau’s traditional casino industry. It examines the system’s historical background, its organizational structure, its operational mechanisms, and its role in Macau’s casino industry. This analysis examines the evolving and likely future changes in the VIP-room sector—as well as the mass market sector—caused by the liberalization of Macau’s gaming laws in 2001 and the Free Individual Travelers Scheme, introduced by the Chinese government in 2003. This study develops a framework to explain how the two sectors’ market shares are determined by examining the economic and cultural forces at work. The existing structure of the VIP-room contractual system in Macau’s casino industry will not likely continue in its traditional way, and will be replaced by newly evolving systems consistent with the new competitive realities. However, the VIP business will likely continue in one form or another.

A ‘Second-Best’ Rationale to Deflationary Monetary Policy in Japan [PDF]
Authors: Cargill, T. and Guerrero F. Abstract: The Bank of Japan permitted a ten-year period of deflation (1995-2005) which appears to have ended in 2006. The deflation, as well as the preceding disinflation, adversely affected the financial and real sectors of the economy that in turn, made it difficult to recover from the collapse of asset prices in 1990 and 1991. Various ad hoc explanations have been offered to account for the deflation period. This paper offers a second-best explanation based on a two-player policy game between the Bank of Japan and the banking system in which the banking system relies on an accommodative policy of forgiveness and forbearance by the Ministry of Finance to deal with weak balance sheets. The paper does not explicitly model the Ministry of Finance preference function but incorporates the Bank of Japan’s perceived willingness of the Ministry to accommodate the banking system in the Bank’s reaction function. The model suggests that in the context of established deflationary expectations and large amounts of debt, the Bank of Japan explicitly regarded the level of debt as exceeding the socially optimal level, that Ministry of Finance forgiveness and forbearance contributed to this excess, and lacking an instrument to reverse deflationary expectations, the Bank of Japan employed deflation as a disciplining instrument to limit real debt.

A Reassessment of the Problems with Interest Targeting: What Have We Learned from Japanese Monetary Policy? [PDF]
Authors: Cargill, T. and Guerrero F. Abstract: Interest rate targeting is widely used by central banks to pursue price stability; however, the variation in inflation policy outcomes between central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan despite a common policy instrument framework suggests interest- targeting has limitations. Despite the variation in policy outcomes, the role of targeting was enhanced with the advent of Taylor rules in the 1990s and interest rate targeting dominates central bank attitudes to the exclusion of any other policy instrument framework. The recent Japanese experience confronts us with the need to reassess the relative merits of interest targeting. This paper frames the discussion of the various problems of the interest-targeting framework within a model that encompasses a number of important previous results and stresses that interest rate targeting may leave the price level indeterminate in various plausible circumstances. In a low, or even zero interest rate environment, such as the one that characterized Japan, Taylor-type rules may offer no solution to the indeterminacy problem. The paper then discusses various aspects of the BoJ’s decision to adhere to interest rate targeting despite its limitations.

Do Casinos Export Bankruptcy? [PDF]
Authors: Garrett, T. and Nichols, M. Abstract: This paper measures the extent to which destination resort casinos export bankruptcy back to visitors’ home states. Previous literature has alluded to this possibility, but to date studies have only examined the influence of local casinos on local bankruptcy. Using various survey data, we calculate the number of visits from each state to casino resort destinations in Nevada, New Jersey, and Mississippi. We find strong evidence that states having more residents who visit out-of-state casino resorts have higher bankruptcy filings. This effect is dominant in the south, suggesting that casinos located in wealthier regions are less likely to export bankruptcy.

Does Medical Diagnosis Data Clarify the Relation Between Prenatal Care and Delivery Outcomes [PDF]
Authors: Mukhopadhyay S. and Wendel J. Abstract: Studies indicating that prenatal care has minimal impact sparked additional work to assess whether this is a correct conclusion or a statistical artifact. Recent work highlights the importance of including medical diagnoses as regression variables, developing inclusive measures for health outcomes, and using provider-generated measures of prenatal care utilization. We explore these issues using administrative data provided by a tertiary care hospital and a prenatal care clinic. This data includes provider-generated utilization data, coded medical diagnoses, and variable direct costs for delivery-episode hospital care. Because all patients in this dataset obtained care from one set of providers in one urban area, the data set also minimizes heterogeneity due to variations in provider practice patterns and community services. We find that prenatal care exerts a significant beneficial impact on infant outcomes, and variable direct cost provides an inclusive outcomes measure when appropriate exogenous control variables are available. Estimated per-visit cost savings range from zero for patients with no diagnoses, to $10 for patients with one diagnosis, and $22 for patients with multiple diagnoses. The differences among these per-visit savings are significant, suggesting suboptimal allocation of clinic resources. Prenatal care utilization does not, however, increase with the number of diagnoses.

Does the Party in Power Matter for Economic Performance? [PDF]
Authors: Parker, E. Abstract: In this brief paper, I consider whether five common political beliefs have any basis in fact. Does the economy grow faster when Republicans are in charge? Does the size of the government actually keep expanding? If so, is this growth correlated with Democrats being in charge? Does bigger government lead to slower growth? Finally, is it accurate to characterize Democrats as the “tax and spend” party? While correlation is not causation and theoretical relationships are complex, the data on U.S. economic performance during the postwar period does not appear to support any of these beliefs, and in fact tends more to support the alternative hypotheses.

Early-Stage Globalization and Corporate Debt Maturity: The Case of South Korea, 1980-94 [PDF]
Authors: Guerrero, F. Abstract: Using data from publicly traded South Korean corporations for the period 1980-94, this paper finds evidence that increases in financial liberalization that accompanied the more general process of financial globalization have significantly reduced the maturity structure of corporate debt contracts, thus lending partial empirical support to the idea that financial liberalization can be well described as “short-term pain, long-term gain”. This effect of financial liberalization on corporate debt maturity is robust to changes in econometric specification, and does not seem to be counteracted by opposing forces that tended to lengthen the maturity of corporate debt during the same period.

Efficiency and Technology Gap in China's Agriculture: A Regional META-Frontier Analysis [PDF]
Authors: Chen, Z. and Song, S. Abstract: This paper utilizes a unique county-level dataset to examine technical efficiency and technology gap in China’s agriculture. We classify the counties into four regions with distinctive levels of economic development, and hence production technologies. A meta-frontier analysis is applied to the counties. We find that although the eastern counties have the highest efficiency scores with respect to the regional frontier but the northeastern region leads in terms of agricultural production technology nationwide. Meanwhile, the mean efficiency of the northeastern counties is particularly low, suggesting technology and knowledge diffusion within region might help to improve production efficiency and thus output.

Explaining the Variation in Tax Structures in the MENA Region [PDF]
Authors: Tosun, M. Abstract: This paper examines the tax structures of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by focusing on the quality of governance and demographic changes as two influential factors in region’s economies. The objective of is to determine whether these factors can explain the variation in the tax structures of these countries. Results from regressions on the MENA countries and the ones based on a larger sample of 61 countries show that these factors affected the level of taxation, measured by the tax ratio, more strongly than they affected the tax composition. While the quality of governance seems to have affected the tax structures in the MENA countries more than in other comparable Non-OECD countries, demographics seems to have played a bigger role in determining the tax structures in other Non-OECD countries. However, neither of these factors explained changes in the income tax share satisfactorily. One key result is that the increase in the quality of governance has decreased the reliance on domestic taxes on goods and services. The paper provides a discussion on the policy implications of these results.

Externalities from International Labor Migration: Efficacy of a Brain Drain Tax in the Euro-Mediterranean Region [PDF]
Authors: Tosun, M. Abstract: This paper uses a two-region, two-period overlapping generations model with international labor mobility to examine the efficacy of using tax policy to internalize the externalities created by international labor migration. While a brain drain tax has a substantial limiting effect on labor migration and a small negative effect on per worker growth, it is found to be a viable solution to the negative externality problem. It is also found that the brain-drain tax can raise substantial tax revenue for the SMCs which could be used to enhance human capital in the region.

Fiscal Centralization and Decentralization in Russia and China [PDF]
Authors: Parker, E. and Thornton, J. Abstract: In this paper we review the fiscal evolution of China and Russia, asking how the process of creating a separate, tax-financed public sector in the two countries differed. We observe that the size of China's budget sector was consistently smaller than in Russia and that budget decentralization was consistently greater. We see both pros and cons in China's decentralization. Local governments that were allowed to keep marginal increases in local tax revenue had incentives to pursue growth-supporting policies, including support for foreign investment and export-oriented production. However, in the absence of financial markets, there were barriers to investment outside the local region, resulting in inefficient use of capital and protectionism. Fiscal deficits and rapid expansion of credit have threatened stability in both countries, but China has proved more successful than Russia in managing macroeconomic policies. Finally, we argue that Russia's status as a petro-state makes management of the public sector particularly difficult. In Russia, recentralization has been associated with expansion of state ownership of enterprises and production by territorial governments, state ministries, state banks, and the natural monopolies.

Local Decentralization and Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Regions [PDF]
Authors: Hammond, G. and Tosun, M. Abstract: This paper extends the recent empirical literature on the relationship between local decentralization and growth using data from both metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions in the U.S. The analysis utilizes both metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions, and thus avoids the possible selection bias present in previous research. The results for non-metropolitan regions indicate a relatively weak or negative relationship between the local decentralization measures and local economic growth compared to a positive relationship suggested by a recent study on metropolitan regions. Results for the non-metro regions also suggest that there are different impacts across population and income than we observe for metropolitan regions.

Long-Term Inflation Outcomes after Hyperinflation: Theory and Evidence [PDF]
Authors: Guerrero, F. Abstract: This paper does two things. First, it shows both anecdotal and cross-country evidence that indicates that countries that have experienced hyperinflation display significantly lower long-term rates of inflation than countries that lack the same experience. Secondly, it presents a model to rationalize the main empirical finding. There is more than one mechanism through which the long-term effects of hyperinflation may have an impact on long-term inflation outcomes. The suggested explanation this paper offers is that hyperinflations act by reducing the social costs of increasing the collection of conventional, distortionary taxes relative to the collection of the inflation tax.

Managing a 401(k) Account: An Experiment on Asset Allocation [PDF]
Authors: Sundali, J. and Guerrero, F. Abstract: The study reports the results of an asset allocation experiment in which subjects managed an endowment of money over a 20 "year" time period. While grounded in theory, the study takes an applied look at the ability of subjects to efficiently and effectively make asset allocation decisions similar to those found in 401(k) accounts. The main conclusions are as follows. First, efficient portfolios are more easily created when the set of assets to choose from is carefully constructed. Thus, financial engineers should be given the responsibility for choosing the assets available to plan participants and ensuring that combinations of these assets will fall on the efficient frontier. If followed, this advice would likely significantly reduce the amount of individual company stock offered in Defined Contribution (DC) plans in place of well-constructed low cost index funds from multiple asset classes. Second, if the assets selected for inclusion in DC plans allow the investor to easily create portfolios on the efficient frontier, then the challenge for the investor is not how to get onto the frontier but where to locate on it. The simplistic surveys that are commonly used by DC plan providers to determine risk tolerance and to recommend asset allocations are woefully inadequate for this task. More sophisticated and theoretically driven instruments must be created to educate investors on the risks and the benefits available at different points along the efficient frontier.

Mobility of the Chinese Urban Poor - A Case Study of Hefei City [PDF]
Authors: Peng, Z., Zhu, Y. and Song, S. Abstract: In a rapid economic development environment with rising income, escalating motorization, and growing urbanization, it is natural for government policies to focus on solving congestion related problems caused by the increased car ownership and usage. The mobility needs of the urban poor have been traditionally neglected in policy and in practice, particularly in developing countries. This paper addresses the mobility challenges the urban poor are facing based on a household travel survey in the City of Hefei in China. It first presents travel behaviors, transportation costs and commuting problems of the urban poor. It then discusses the urban transportation policy implications and examines the prevailing trends of urban transportation policies and plans in Chinese cities. Policy recommendations are suggested to improve the mobility needs of the urban poor.

Teaching Convergence: A Contribution [PDF]
Authors: Guerrero, F. Abstract: The issue of convergence has been hotly debated since the mid 1980s. Only recently certain consensus has arisen around some of the most fundamental issues. It seems hardly surprising, then, to find a large variation in how those issues are taught to undergraduates. This paper is an attempt at clarifying the different concepts of convergence, and their relation to both the neoclassical model of growth and available cross-country evidence. Evidence on some of the contradictory ways in which the issues are taught is provided, a simple way to teach the relevant concepts of convergence by means of numerical examples is presented, and relevant examples drawn from historical evidence are shown. Also, the implications of the neoclassical growth model are presented in a slightly different, but clearer way, and some of the difficulties to interpret the cross-country empirical evidence are reviewed.

Tenders with Different Risk Preferences in Construction Industry [PDF]
Authors: Tang, F., Zong, W. and Song, S. Abstract: Underlying the fact that different tenderers have different preferences on risk-taking, this study investigates the different tenderers' behaviors in one-shot construction bid auctions. Our model extends the preconditions of previous assumption that all tenderers are characterized by neutral risk-taking in the original tendering model for lowest-price sealed tender. A general tendering model for the lowest-price sealed tender is established to explain the behavior of tenderers during the tendering. The results indicate that construction estimate is affected by the degree of uncertainties in the construction industry. Therefore, in a lowest-price sealed tender, risk-averse tenders would tender a higher price and conversely risk-seeking tenderers would tender a lower price when risk-neutral tenderers would tender a middle price. However, the risk-seeking tenderers are more likely to win the bid.

The Impact of Institutional Characteristics on the Use and Effectiveness of Rainy Day Funds: A Pilot Study of Municipal Governments in West Virginia [PDF]
Authors: Daugherty M., Stalebrink, O. and Tosun, M. Abstract: This research focuses on enhancing the understanding of the use of “rainy day funds” to deal with municipal fiscal shortfalls. It is a pilot study, examining the largest 15 cities in West Virginia. Analysis of data from state reports and interviews with finance directors are used to determine whether, how, and to the degree the cities studied use various reserve fund mechanisms. While almost every city was found to have fiscal reserves, there was great variation in the methods used and amounts in how it was done – some cities followed predictable patterns found elsewhere while others did not.